Impeachment, elections, Donkeys or Elephants, will it really
matter? When will all this debt overwhelm us?
Discussing a real estate boom in Steamboat springs, CO
during the early 1970’s with my late father gave me some food for thought that
has never faded. He explained mortgages were being exchanged but no “hard
dollars” were involved. He said, and he was proven correct, there would be a
collapse.
Old NFO’s blog, Nobody Asked Me , https://oldnfo.org/ has some interesting side bars. One I read
today in particular struck a nerve, https://accordingtohoyt.com/
where she talks about aging and shrinking populations and the financial
positions of our younger people.
Another blogger, http://www.kimdutoit.com/2019/12/02/it-aint-that/
had an observation I find relevant.
My
opinion is that young people aren’t interested in cars for two reasons:
·
They all look the same. (I’ve ranted and raved about this situation so many
times, I’m starting to bore myself.)
·
New cars cost too much, and youngins don’t have the cash to buy them — hence the
popularity of the “no-car” ownership and Uber.
Looking at the financial situation of younger people, I don’t
see a bright future for them.
Under President Trump the economy has taken off, jobs have
been created, and capital investments are being made. At the same time, debt
has soared. So the question I ask myself is where the “hard dollars” are and
who has them?
Please understand after the eight retched Lightbringer
years, our situation is far better, IMO. Is it sustainable?
As a private citizen, President Trump has a long string of
bankrupt business endeavors. Will he bankrupt the country? Who will get
shafted? Does he have that mindset as President?
In my thirties I was hustled hard to buy Icelandic bonds
that were paying 13% interest. The country defaulted, but still functions as a
country. I declined the opportunity, yeah me, while at the same time I worked
with a man whose father was the stockbroker for the first issue of Microsoft on
the Spokane Stock Exchange. I declined that opportunity, boo me!
As a country we have defaulted, under the Lightbringer, so
there is a precedent. I don’t claim to understand all of this but try to get
some glimmer of what is coming. More boom, or a big bust?
The bright side is, Shillary wasn’t elected, or we would
already have answers to some of my questions.
22 comments:
The man who was my Electronics mentor made a metric sh1t-ton of money in the stack market back in the late '60's, and guided me on making some, too. He could uncannily pick low dollar stocks that were overdue to go up, buy a bunch, and within six months he'd "sell too early", and make bundle. The stock would usually go up another point or two, and then drop back to about where it originally was. And he guided us on doing the taxes since I was under 18, and fell under some obscure tax code things he knew.
Other than that, I stay out of the market.....
There is a boom and bust cycle. It will be a true miracle if four more years of President Trump will remain boom years, because there will be an inevitable correction. It's been that way - since the beginning of time (Bible story about Joseph in Egypt). The smart thing to do is to remain as debt free as possible and ride the wave.
I don't think I disagree with any of what you've said.
But my mind goes back to the me of 40 years ago when I was engaged. All the old busybodies I worked with in the candy factory (wow, that really happened...) were quite vocal about how hard it was going to be for me/us to survive on our own. "I don't know how people get started these days!"
They weren't completely wrong, except I'm content without spending a huge pile of money or having a huge pile to spend in the first place.
Looking at my son and his wife, who've been married five years now, I see hope. She's an accountant and very good with financial stuff. They're going to do a lot better than we did on saving for the future.
You know, if we *have* a future.
The future: all of the entitlement programs are Ponzi schemes and will blow up down the road. How far down the road is always a point of speculation.
Debt-free is the way to go, once the s**t hits the fan. You'll have a better than average chance of avoiding eating out of dumpsters than those that are up to their eyeballs in debt and have been living way beyond their means since, well, forever.
That, and keep plenty of banana clips full of .556 ammo at the ready, not that the hoards won't eventually overrun your position, but at least you will have the satisfaction of taking out a few hundred of them before that happens.
NOTE: preppers are dopes. They stockpile goodies to prep for the melt down, and all of their goodies will be consumed by people they never knew (or wanted to know).
drjim
I've always stayed away from any kind of stocks or bonds other than having a 401k.
LL
Agree. I have zero debt and have been that way for years.
Ami
Glad to hear that about your son and DIL.
Fredd
The wise preppers keeps their mouths shut.
If I can't afford to pay cash, I can't afford it. Been debt free for years.
Have a year's cash emergency fund set aside, and only the kids know where. Being debt free is the only way to go as far as I'm concerned.
Brig
Good for you! Takes real discipline to get where you are.
Either way, it's going to be interesting. I'm saving brass and lead... :-)
OldNFO
My concern is my sons and grandkids. I'll be fine.
Fool: 'Wise preppers.' No such thing. A wise prepper is the same thing as a skinny sumo wrestler, a fat thoroughbred jockey, a nice demon or an honest Democrat.
When civil society breaks down, the displaced hordes in the cities will start to fan out seeking resources from wherever they are. And these mobs will be human waves, untold masses of hungry thieves and murderers scouring every square inch of the landscape.
The preppers that fortified their property, stashed all kinds of ammo and food inside their fortresses - that will be like a grocery store to the mobs. Sure, the defenders (aka 'wise preppers') will pick off a couple of hundred that stumble across their fortified position. Word will spread like wildfire that there is a stash of goodies being defended by some 'wise preppers.' The mobs will crawl over the dead bodies of the first wave that was gunned down by the wise preppers, and while the wise preppers inside will melt their barrels down keeping the mobs at bay, the unending mobs will overwhelm their position eventually, and grab whatever is left of their ammo, kill every wise prepper and probably torture them to death, and then eat all of their food.
Those 'wise preppers' that keep their mouths shut will be on borrowed time. All of their stuff that they 'wisely' stashed will be consumed by people they never knew (and never wanted to know).
This can't be argued. Unless the wise prepper chooses to make their last stand at the North Pole, at the summit of Mount Everest or in the middle of the Sahara Desert. Then maybe....
Fredd
Where are the mobs getting enough sustenance to stay alive that long?
Fool: from the foolish people who still cling to civility, while the mobs do not. There will be hungry mobs, for sure, but they will still be a rapacious lot. Unless your wise prepper is in a remote location, hours away by car from 'civilization,' the mobs will be on your doorsteps within a week or two, not long enough for them to starve to death. But take this to the bank: that remote location will be found soon enough. And the word will get out that there are goodies to be had.
And of course lots of the mob will perish. Still, however, leaving lots and LOTS (millions upon millions) of mob left to seek out preppers and their stuffed larders. Wise preppers, as you call them.
Lots of people will die, of course, mob and otherwise. To prolong a guaranteed miserable existence, mobility will be necessary, in addition to forming like minded coalitions who will support each other on the road. Or what is left of the road. Staying in a fixed position and trying to keep the mobs out won't work. You have to sleep sometime, and probably run out of ammo, and when you do, the mobs will descend on the preppers and their stash.
All of this speculative jibber jabber about the end of days is of course just that: jibber jabber. We won't know whether the Well Seasoned Fool is right, or whether dumb ol' Fredd is right. Much like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin; I don't think that 1000 year old squabble has been settled yet...
Fool: of course, you could just hang a sign on your door: "NO MOBS ALLOWED ENTRY." That oughtta fix things.
Fredd
Solution #2 assumes they can read. Better to be a wise prepper and eventually be overrun that a hapless victim, IMO.
Fool: of a million displaced and desperate wretches, the odds that somebody eyeballing that sign can read is 100%. And 100% of that mob will disregard it.
Wise preppers will not 'eventually' be overrun. They will be overrun straight away. Within weeks. Maybe not even that long. Hapless victims, probably not. I am only 60 miles from Chicago. The mobs will be on my door in days, assuming I don't hit the road first. I have quite a bit of hollow point ammo and a .357 Magnum Taurus revolver. I might bag me maybe 50 dirtbags or so trying to climb in my windows. Maybe more. Maybe less, if the dirtbags are armed, too. They probably will be. But hapless victim? Nah.
Fredd
Let us hope neither of us are proven right or wrong.
Fredd
Let us hope neither of us are proven right or wrong.
Oh yes, pray to God Almighty that this gloomy, sad ending does not come anytime soon, if ever, so that we can speculate endlessly and harmlessly on how it might go down when the poo hits the fan.
Point!
My crew have a history of bad investments, which irks me, and some good ones too. Me? I have very little, no debt, thank God, and a fair few firearms. But what happens if things "go south"?
Fredd certainly has a point, imagine a starving Chicago mob overrunning a prepper fortress. That said, with you, imagine that same mob dying in the fields in 100*++ heat between Dallas and Waco. I doubt many thousands would even break out of the Metrosprawl.
That in mind, I could see small towns et al banding together for defense and there it is, the balkanization of America. Hillsboro, where I'm at, would have a militia in place quickly. Heck, I'd probably be a chaplain.
But more to the point, if we break down and central gov fails, who pays the Army? And en lieu of wages, what do the troops do? Just hitch hike home and play Woodstock on their iPhones? Hardly.
Big and possibly ridic hypothetical for sure but there's precedent, viz. Rome. Forgive rambling comment!
LSP
Like your comment. As to financial smarts, I was living in the Seattle area when the espresso craze started. Did an in depth analysis and concluded the whole idea wouldn't "pencil" and was a fad. A cheapskate like me couldn't fathom someone spending over $1 for a cup of coffee.
Pastor: small towns could band together, but they would run into the same fate as a single fortified position: seige by the mobs. If you ever saw Mel Gibson in "Mad Max: The Road Warrior", that scenario plays out where a small refinery is under seige by the barbarian mobs of a distopian future. It ended up OK for those guys, but I can point to plenty of holes in the plot as to why that would never have happened except in Hollywood.
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