Sunday, October 9, 2022

A Canary in the Financial Coal Mine

Democrats buying votes is getting closer to biting all of us in the ass, IMO.

Starting with Willy Wanker,  we had the sub-prime debacle.  2008 was when the shit really hit the fan.

The side effects killed the used car business, at least for me, and I started a new career securing abandoned/foreclosed homes. Turn off water, drain pipes, change locks, board up windows, and write reports along with many digital photographs. Many houses still had furniture and personal belongings that I sub-contracted to a couple who ran a second hand store to clean out. Not the most uplifting work but I had bills to pay.

A few years ago as a part time job, I became, legally, a debt collector. The essence of the job is to deliver the borrower a letter from the mortgage company encouraging them to pay attention to their delinquency. I take a few photos and submit a short report.

During the COVID nonsense the work was a trickle. Now it is a flood.

Last month I was paid for 30 jobs. Already this month I’ve been paid for 32 jobs, have 12 pending payment, and have six current assignments with just 1/3 of the month gone. (The payment schedule is convoluted so I’m doing averages here)

I’ve been forewarned by the dispatcher that, due to some HUD programs changing, much more work will be coming after the first of the year.

I do not seek out information, beyond a current phone number, from the people I contact. First, I don’t get paid to do it, and second, I don’t want to get embroiled.

During the 2008 crash, a common practice was for the mortgagee to start stashing cash and seeing how long they could live in the house without making payments. They recognized their credit was trashed so they went into a survival mode. I will guess that is happening again.

Most likely, these folks aren’t aware of some of the provisions of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act which will allow banks to save themselves by seizing their customers accounts to include safe deposit boxes.

The last place I will ever have assets is with a commercial bank. Credit Unions are safer – different rules and less risky lending practices. Safer, of course, isn't safe.

The (P)regressives running the Democrat Party are making money out of thin air; buying votes. A Ponzi on an epic scale.

Many people more knowledgeable than me are warning of a complete financial meltdown. I fear the warnings are correct. How bad will it be?

As always, YMMV

For anyone wandering by from the Sequin, Texas area a cousin is running for the school board. Solid man, retired Master Chief whose career didn't have soft jobs. Please check him out.


Ed Campbell said...

I was blessed in that my parents taught me debt was a bad thing. I do use credit cards but pay them off monthly so that no interest accrues. House is paid for, vehicles are paid for. Sure there are things I want but if I can't pay for them right away I just don't get them. Live within your means. Sometimes it sucks but at the end of the day you will be happier.

Well Seasoned Fool said...

Ed C
The best way to live, IMO. Saturday am the lady at a house I visited before went off yelling at me to never come back, etc. Three car garage. Sitting in the driveway was an Audi, a Lincoln Navigator, and a F250 4x4 Platinum edition. Those garages probably have toys in them.
The yelling isn't common but the expensive vehicles are at many of the homes I visit.

drjim said...

I remember the 2008 real estate crash in SoCal. I think this next one is going to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

Well Seasoned Fool said...

Most of my travel is North of Denver along the I-25 corridor. The amount of new home construction is amazing. Overbuilt market meets mortgage collapse is a real possibility.

My personal insurance agency has an older lady. She and her husband are now empty nesters and have their large home on the market right now while the market is hot. She doesn't like what she is seeing on the insurance side of things.

drjim said...

I hope they do OK with the sale. LOTS of properties are sitting on the market for ~120 days before they either cut their asking price, or they sit another 60~90 days.

Even when we bought in 2017, only about 85% of the houses we looked sold for full asking price. And they were nice!

Well Seasoned Fool said...

As someone with a lot of construction experience, granted many years ago, I doubt the long term integrity of what I see being built. The quality of the material available today isn't impressive.

drjim said...

I noticed the same thing in Illinois. The "newer" homes being built as I moved away were definitely not as stout as the ones I saw being built in my parent's neighborhood when I was growing up.

Old NFO said...

What's coming will be 'worse' than people think, IMHO... Sadly not in Seguin, so I can't vote for him.

Well Seasoned Fool said...

Today I was in a high dollar development near Berthoud called Heron Lakes being built around a golf course. The finished homes are "grand". The bones of the ones under construction didn't impress me.

It is going to get ugly. Your neighbor's blog has pointed reminders.